QCP Digital Assets Market Outlook
Q4: Beyond The Next Hike
The Fed is tightening again. On 16 September it raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and the dot plot points to one more move before year end. At the same time the 30-year Treasury hit its highest yield since 2007, as heavy government borrowing and AI-related debt compete for the same buyers.
BTC muddied the picture in August. It rallied from the mid-$60Ks to above $80K and started trading more like gold than the Nasdaq. But that rally came alongside a short squeeze and falling futures open interest, so the debasement case has earned BTC a seat at the table, not yet a defensive role.
Q4 now runs through a dense calendar. The October FOMC, the US midterms and the Treasury refunding update all land within eight days of each other, and every outcome cuts both ways. Our Q4 Outlook walks through what matters this quarter and how we're positioning around it.
What's Inside
Rates & the Long End
Hiking, not easing. The Fed moved again as the 30-year hit its highest yield since 2007. What that means for risk appetite, and why it put BTC into the debasement conversation.
US Midterms
A sequence, not a night. How the FOMC, election and Treasury refunding cluster could move yields, and why a vote is not the same as new inflows.
Stablecoins and Prediction Markets
Adoption that ignores the spot price. Stablecoin supply is still below its May peak, while prediction-market volume keeps growing.
Q4 Positioning
Constructive but conditional. Our base-case range for BTC, the signals that would confirm a breakout, and where defined-risk structures beat added size.
